Can I retire on my bitcoin?
Sell it today, buy inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, and this is the yearly income in today's dollars. Then a look at what holding would have done through bitcoin's real history.
What you sell goes into Treasury bonds, and that income holds even if bitcoin goes to zero.
| Sold today, after tax | - |
|---|---|
| In Treasury bonds it pays, whatever bitcoin does | -a year |
| With the bitcoin you keep, if it only keeps pace with inflation | -a year |
| That covers | -of what you need |
| Bitcoin needed to cover it all | - |
| Or this stack at a bitcoin price of | - |
Loading the live price.
What bitcoin's real history would have done
The other road is to keep the bitcoin and sell a little every month. Each bar retires with the same amount as today, adjusted for inflation, all in bitcoin, selling every month for what you need. This history is mostly a bull market, so it flatters bitcoin. Look at the starts near the 2017 and 2021 peaks: that is what a crash early in retirement does.